Impact du changement climatique sur l’oïdium de la vigne : cas de la Champagne

Abstract : Powdery mildew, one of the most widespread grapevine disease, causes damage to the plant foliage, reduces yields and alters quality of grapes. This fungus development is strongly controlled by climate conditions and viticulture requires in many regions large quantities of pesticides for disease control. Projecting the impacts of climate change on these disease and developing a better understanding of future disease risk is crucial, given the increasing societal pressure for pesticide reduction and sustainability. This study focused on (i) the elaboration of an empirical model that establishes links between monthly climate data and annual powdery mildew pressure in Champagne and (ii) the use of this empirical model to simulate the evolution of disease pressure using simulated climate data (1976-2100). The disease pressure database represents the powdery mildew observed plots percentage with leaves and grapes symptoms expression at different phenological stages. The data was studied across the 2004-2018 period and it included 200 Chardonnay plots in Champagne. Monthly climate indices (temperature and precipitation) were tested using multiple linear regressions in order to explain the vineyard observed pressure at different phenological stages. The best linear multiple regression model simulates the percentage of impacted plots observed on the 1st of July based on April’s mean minimum temperatures and May’s cumulated precipitations. The 21st century disease risk was projected with the CMIP5 RCP8.5 scenario temperature and rainfall data from 18 GCMs (General Circulation Models) which were statistically downscaled and debiased to match a daily 8 km target resolution over the 1976-2100 period. These data were then used to fed the retained pressure model. The increase in future climate temperatures and the small decrease in precipitation lead to a low simulated powdery mildew pressure over Champagne for the 21st century.
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Journal articles
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Submitted on : Tuesday, July 16, 2019 - 2:19:14 PM
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  • HAL Id : hal-02185105, version 1

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Sébastien Zito, Yves Richard, Thierry Castel, Benjamin Bois. Impact du changement climatique sur l’oïdium de la vigne : cas de la Champagne. Revue scientifique Bourgogne-Franche-Comté Nature, 2019, pp.206-212. ⟨hal-02185105⟩

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