Attribution of typhoon-induced torrential precipitation in Central Vietnam, October 2020

Linh N. Luu (1, 2) , P. Scussolini (1, 3) , Sarah Kew (1) , Sjoukje Yvette Philip (1) , Mugni Hadi Hariadi (1) , Robert Vautard (4, 5) , Khiem van Mai , Thang van Vu (2) , Kienba Truong (2) , Friederike Otto (6) , Gerard van Der Schrier (1) , Maarten Krispijn van Aalst (7, 8) , Geert Jan van Oldenborgh (1)

1 KNMI - Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
2 IMHEN - Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change
3 VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]
4 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
5 ESTIMR - Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation
6 Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment
7 University of Twente
8 IRI - International Research Institute for Climate and Society

In October 2020, Central Vietnam was struck by heavy rain resulting from a sequence of 5 tropical depressions and typhoons. The immense amount of water led to extensive flooding and landslides that killed more than 200 people, injured more than 500 people, and caused direct damages valued at approximately 1.2 billion USD. Here, we quantify how the intensity of the precipitation leading to such exceptional impacts is attributable to anthropogenic climate change. First, we define the event as the regional maximum of annual maximum 15-day average rainfall (Rx15day). We then analyse the trend in Rx15day over Central Vietnam from the observations and simulations in the PRIMAVERA and CORDEX-CORE ensembles, which pass our evaluation tests, by applying the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution in which location and scale parameters exponentially covary with increasing global temperatures. Combining these observations and model results, we find that the 2020 event, occurring about once every 80 years (at least 17 years), has not changed in either probability of occurrence (a factor 1.0, ranging from 0.4 to 2.4) or intensity (0%, ranging from −8 to +8%) in the present climate in comparison with early-industrial climate. This implies that the effect of human-induced climate change contributing to this persistent extreme rainfall event is small compared to natural variability. However, given the scale of damage of this hazard, our results underline that more investment in disaster risk reduction for this type of rainfall-induced flood hazard is of importance, even independent of the effect of anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, as both observations and model simulations will be extended with the passage of time, we encourage more climate change impact investigations on the extreme in the future that help adaptation and mitigation plans and raise awareness in the country.

Mots clés: Attribution; Climate change; Extreme events; Heavy rainfall; Typhoon

Domaines: Sciences de l'environnement; Planète et Univers [physics]

Linh N. Luu, P. Scussolini, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Yvette Philip, Mugni Hadi Hariadi, et al.. Attribution of typhoon-induced torrential precipitation in Central Vietnam, October 2020. Climatic Change, 2021, 169, pp.24. ⟨10.1007/s10584-021-03261-3⟩. ⟨hal-03524595⟩